Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the CEO and co-founder of the Binance exchange, shared his insights on Monday about the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is set to occur next year.
In a blog post, he highlighted that historical patterns do not reliably predict future outcomes and emphasized the absence of a proven causal link between halvings and BTC price.
$BTC: I still think that 27k is going to come….interesting level w. lots of confluence. Should see a bounce around there. Look how all the EMAs on the 4h and 1D are all lined up there. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ffvXY6Dkii
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) October 4, 2023
“Binance added the Bitcoin halving countdown to our homepage. What happens around Bitcoin Halvings? I can’t predict the future. This is my experience based on the past three halvings,” said the CEO. “The few months leading up to the bitcoin halving (from now), there will be more and more chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope, etc.
“The day after the halving, the Bitcoin price won’t double overnight. And people will be asking why it didn’t. The year after the halving, Bitcoin price hit multiple ATH (all-time highs). And people ask why. People have short memories.”
$BTC: wick in late August tagged, price is probably short term bottomed.
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) October 3, 2023
George Tung from TheStreetCrypto also echoed CZ’s message, emphasizing the consistent trend of Bitcoin reaching multiple all-time highs after a halving. Tung further noted that the peaks Bitcoin reaches post-halving are generally significantly higher than its previous peaks, such as the last high at $69,000, compared to prior highs of $20,000 and $1,000. He anticipates that this time, the high could surpass $69,000.
Tung also mentioned the current price stability of Bitcoin (which hovers around $27,000) and described it as a typical pattern observed before reward halvings. His analysis of past Bitcoin market cycles led to the anticipation that the upcoming all-time high could potentially reach hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Bitcoin is a predicate machine. Over the following months, we shall explore different aspects that were not explicitly contained within the white paper. These aspects are all parts of bitcoin, and are important. Some of these ideas were touched upon in the early years; now is…
— Satoshi Nakamoto (@satoshi) October 2, 2023
As the Binance CEO said, the current mood in the crypto markets is dominated by uncertainty and hesitancy, reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index maintaining a neutral stance at 50. This has triggered a sense of unease among investors in alternative currencies, mainly due to short-term perspectives.
Despite this, Bitcoin has managed to maintain a relatively steady position and stands out as one of the select few cryptocurrencies displaying double-digit gains this year.
And here are my thoughts around the Bitcoin Halvings…https://t.co/1bmuizoeZG
— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) October 8, 2023
Understanding Bitcoin halving
Bitcoin halving is a predetermined event where the rewards given to miners are reduced by half, aiming to increase the coin’s deflationary nature. Consequently, the number of coins entering the market is also halved.
This mechanism is applied to proof-of-work-based cryptocurrencies. The upcoming halving for Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency globally, is set to occur in April-May of the following year, marking the fourth BTC halving in its history.
#Bitcoin 2023 – 2027 outlook. We will likely see a start of the bull run slightly before halving. Here is why:
Bitcoin is trading in the correction range (like in 2019/2020) seperated by two trendlines (yellow area, blue box), indicated by MACD consolidation (blue… pic.twitter.com/S86EkwQMuJ
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) October 4, 2023
Bitcoin goes through halving events every four years. The most recent one happened in 2020, at the same time as the pandemic affected the markets. In the following year, Bitcoin hit new highest prices in April and October.
In the second surge, BTC almost reached $69,000. Many believe that the significant rise in Bitcoin’s value in 2021 was mainly because the U.S. government printed a lot of money in 2020.
I wish I could tell you my lame story from 2015, when the $btc price "crashed" to below $200, and I just sold my house and bought in at $600 a few months earlier… Well, I am still here.
— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) November 20, 2018
Over $6 trillion was injected into the U.S. economy in that single year through various channels like “survival checks” (each worth $1,200) and financial aid to banks and major businesses.
As a Bitcoin halving approaches, the crypto world buzzes with excitement, heightened by extensive news coverage and optimistic outlooks for the future of digital currency. Historical data reveal that the year following a Bitcoin halving often saw the cryptocurrency achieving new record highs. However, it could also be observed that these price surges didn’t happen immediately after the event. As CZ underlined in his post, “History does NOT predict the future..”