Assessing Nvidia’s position in the market
A report by the Financial Times opened up a discussion on Nvidia’s stock performance and future prospects have become a hot topic among investors and analysts. With expectations for the company’s revenue to double to $120 billion in the current fiscal year and then double again to $245 billion by January 2029, Nvidia seems poised for unprecedented growth. This enthusiasm is fueled by the ongoing AI hardware buildout, which analysts believe is far from reaching its peak.
Despite the optimism, a minority of sceptics question whether Nvidia’s meteoric rise is sustainable. Their arguments range from concerns about the scalability of AI investments to doubts about the profitability of AI applications.
Earnings and Valuation Concerns
Nvidia’s stock has surged from trading at 25 times this year’s earnings to 45 times in just six months. This sharp rise reflects either a strong belief in Nvidia’s future or speculative trading disconnected from fundamental earnings expectations. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, for instance, has expressed caution, noting that the AI chip market would need to be worth $500 billion, with Nvidia capturing 80% of it, to justify the current stock price. With Nvidia’s stock now significantly higher, the implied market size is even more staggering.
Customer Investment in AI
The report also discussed another critical point of scepticism that focuses on the investment plans of Nvidia’s customers. For Nvidia to grow as projected, companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta must significantly ramp up their AI spending. However, current projections of these companies’ investments may fall short of what is necessary to meet Nvidia’s growth expectations. Charles Cara of Absolute Strategy Research suggests that either these tech giants need to increase their AI spending, or Nvidia’s earnings will be lower than anticipated.
The reported cited Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs head of global equity research, who presents a multi-part sceptical argument regarding AI technology and, by extension, Nvidia. Covello highlights the high costs associated with building and running AI capacity, which contrasts with past technological innovations that offered cost reductions. He also points out that AI’s benefits might be overestimated and that it lacks a clearly defined revolutionary use case.
Hype cycle and investment sustainability
Despite these sceptical views, Covello argues that the hype cycle surrounding AI will pressure companies to continue investing in the technology. This ongoing investment will benefit companies like Nvidia, even if they appear overvalued. However, the real test will come during the next economic slowdown. If AI has not demonstrated significant moneymaking applications by then, investor tolerance for high-cost, low-return experiments will wane, potentially leading to an abrupt end to the AI boom.
AI in quantitative finance
One area where AI holds promise is in quantitative finance, where finding signals in vast amounts of noisy data is crucial. However, feedback from industry experts suggests that AI merely enhances existing processes rather than revolutionizing them. Nvidia’s current valuation, however, assumes that AI will drive a revolutionary change, raising concerns about whether these expectations are realistic.
The debate over Nvidia’s future is a microcosm of broader discussions about AI’s potential and the sustainability of current investment trends. While Nvidia’s projected growth and the ongoing AI hardware buildout are compelling, the arguments presented by sceptics underscore the need for a balanced perspective. Investors must weigh the optimistic forecasts against the high costs and uncertain benefits of AI, as well as the potential impact of an economic downturn on AI investments.
In the end, the future of Nvidia and the broader AI market will hinge on whether AI can deliver on its promises and generate substantial economic value. As the hype cycle continues, careful scrutiny and cautious optimism will be essential for navigating this rapidly evolving landscape.
