Prediction markets: panelists weigh pros and perils at AIBC Asia 2026

Prediction markets are emerging as one of the most contentious and popular topics in the emerging tech and Web3 industry at the minute. But, as speakers at AIBC Asia 2026’s panel made clear, the sector’s rapid evolution comes with unresolved risks that could determine whether it wins over authorities or remains a trendy topic.

Moderated by Jared Dillinger, CEO of New Prontera Corp, the discussion framed prediction markets as powerful but imperfect tools. Dillinger highlighted a key issue often overlooked: insider trading. “Insider trading concerns are real and not talked about enough,” he said, adding that the industry must move away from its “wild wild west” perception if it hopes to gain mainstream credibility.

For Steve Jimenez, Southeast Asia Lead at EveryX, the future of prediction markets extends far beyond finance. He argued that these platforms could evolve into a new kind of social network—one centred on incentives and signal rather than noise. “I predict prediction markets will be the mainstream social media platform,” Jimenez said. By aggregating user sentiment into tradable outcomes, such platforms offer a direct way to gauge public opinion while countering the limitations of traditional media narratives, he said.

However, Jimenez also cautioned that sentiment is not synonymous with truth. While prediction markets surface crowd beliefs, they can still be wrong.

Prediction Markets: putting money where your mouth is

John Sedano, Creative Director at Agent Daredevil, said prediction markets are fundamentally about putting money where your mouth is. Conviction is measurable. “Put your money where your mouth is leads to better information,” he said, describing the model as a form of “community discovery” that can surface more reliable insights than traditional social media.

Sedano likened the current state of the industry to “Windows 95”: early but full of potential. While vast amounts of opinion data are already recorded on chain, he argued the real opportunity lies in building tools that extract value from it. “What’s missing is: how do we build tools to maximise information?” he said, suggesting that better analytics could restore confidence in media, institutions, and even sports betting ecosystems. He added that prediction markets can lower the barrier to entry for newcomers, making complex betting systems more accessible and community driven.

Still, not all panellists were convinced the space can mature without stronger oversight. Stepan Dobrovolskiy, CEO of BetBoom LATAM, drew direct comparisons between prediction markets and traditional betting. “It’s 100% a betting product,” he said, noting that while sportsbooks operate under strict regulations, many decentralized platforms do not.

Dobrovolskiy argued that regulation is not only inevitable but necessary. Existing betting infrastructure could serve as a model, helping address risks such as market manipulation and insider trading—both of which he identified as critical concerns. “There’s still a lot of manipulation of the market itself,” he warned.

At the same time, he acknowledged blockchain’s potential advantages. The technology can securely store verifiable information, making it a natural fit for confirming whether events have occurred. This capability could enhance transparency and trust—two qualities essential for the long-term viability of prediction markets.

Across the discussion, one theme remained constant: growth is coming. Panelists broadly agreed that prediction markets will expand – but whether they become a trusted forecasting tool or remain a speculative playground will depend on how the industry addresses its current challenges.

AIBC Asia continues tomorrow, bringing more insights from the intersection of tech, finance, and emerging digital ecosystems. Stay tuned.